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 NCAA men’s basketball: Bracketology predictions of the unlikely qualifiers, 2024-25

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Zags get positioned at the head of the bracket for the start of the season. But will they remain there till the end of the season? Gabriel Mayberry/USA TODAY Sports

Joe Lunardi, Senior Writer,

 6, 2024, 23:00

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The exact academics drawn onto any NYPA, men’s or for that matter any other NYPA division, like the Elite Eight, are currently in doubt until the later parts of the March calendar month and the team that would win will also be announced.

In such circumstances, whatever we possess at the onset of the 2025 season is largely speculation, and of that the major portion is unanswerable at this specific first week.

But nevertheless this particular aspect will not be enough to ameliorate the punctuation doctrine in each partnership: in the end, it’s a guessing game.

In the beginning of a new season, I’d like to outline the key issues that I’ll focus on in each new update on Bracketology. There are eight points I’d like to emphasize.

Who takes the position of the fourth No. 1 seed?

The year curator expectations that Kansas, Alabama and Duke – in any order you prefer – will be the three best teams in college basketball this year. In our estimation, this makes them the three most likely candidates for the number 1 seeds come Selection Sunday. Gonzaga is currently in the fourth position following a stunning 103-63 win over the Baylor Bears on opening night, but I could see a plethora of different situations at the end of the day.

Makes sense that the Big East champion (most likely UConn, maybe Creighton) has something to say, and the winner of the Big Ten melee too (our choice is Purdue). Recent events also do not let us forget about a second entry from the Big 12 (likely Houston or newcomer Arizona?).

Which conference has the best chances to grab the most awarded spots in the NCAA?

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The adjusted "Power four" conferences are perfectly suited comprising 68 institutions.

No, they will not all be participating in the NCAA tournament -- not yet anyway -- but they are going to be a source of a very high number of at-large bids never before. The Big East record of 11 bids (out of its 16 teams) set in 2011 is about to be broken soon, perhaps this year, with the SEC, Big 12, and Big Ten all deep enough to get there.

If I had to place all my money on the mortgage, I would go with the SEC for 2024-25. Just keep in mind that the perfect scenario is needed for all time record bid numbers for mega conferences to occur -- when all those extra league games by necessity and promise, mean extra losses.

What conference do you think is the most on the rise?

Once again, I am the one who has been discouraging the performance of the ACC in the past couple of years. It is depressing to see the number of NCAA bids and seeding decrease. But, still, the conference keeps getting better in the actual tournament (not quite negligible), and March was full of injuries and extreme misfortune for the league: Too many bid thieves during Championship Week were to the disadvantage of the ACC (Pitt, Wake Forest), and the rare case of Louisville as Q4 opponent. The Cardinals are back in that spot no more.

It appears that ACC is starting to climb the ladder again because it has indeed hit rock bottom.

They mention however that: The Atlantic 10 might also have five winnable at-large spots: Dayton, Loyola-Chicago, Saint Joseph’s, Saint Louis, and VCU. It's ready for a bounce-back.

Which conference has its commissioner lose sleep?

It has now been more than two decades the Big Ten has not won a men’s national championship title after winning in 2000 – and it’s absolutely not been for lack of effort on their part. Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire

Numerous critics have suggested the 25-year NCAA title drought for the Big Ten has become a comedic issue. More invitations to the tournament have been extended to this Conference than any other and even more consistently, teams do not make it very far in the competition. In NET's time frame, out of 50 entries, only 11.4% have progressed to the second weekend. In that same time period when the ACC had combatants that numbered 34, 51.7% of those made it into the sweet 16. 2024-25 already appears similar where the Big Ten appears to value volume more than anything else.

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Honorable Mention.: The Mountain West brought home 14 bids over the last three seasons, including a whopping six last year alone. Non-San Diego State teams have a dismal and unimproved overall tournament record of 2-12 during that period, so one can only assume that there will be some regression from the MW in the future.

Which notable team in the projected field may fail to qualify for the tournament?

Pardon me if I’m going for the low-hanging fruit, but it’s possible that the current chaos surrounding Memphis could become even more pronounced by March. In addition to their roster turmoil, the Tigers have two other reasons to be concerned: (1) they may have a better UAB, and (2) the entire American Athletic Conference may not be strong enough to produce an at-large team.

Which team do you think has the best chance of maligning my reputation among the teams that have had their match postponed?




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Villanova has the makings of a very good team if anything Eric Dixon moves to power forward and not center. The Wildcats once again went heavy into the transfer portal but look to have a better mix of newcomers than a year ago at least in the backcourt with local – Jhamir Brickus (LaSalle), Tyler Perkins (Penn), Wooga Poplar (Miami via Philly) additions. The Cats at the moment were picked seventh out of the Big East but for sure third year head coach Kyle Neptune would not want such a ranking to be the case.

Which winner of a one-bid conference may have an outside chance to be within the Sweet 16?

Grand Canyon was 30-5 a year ago and managed to defeat a 5 seed Saint Mary’s to reach the round of 32. The Lopes and star forward Tyon Grant-Foster would be ready for more and they could win at least two NCAA games if the right draw comes along.

What other mid-majors are best to have chances of winning a game in the NCAA tournament?

Some will, however, include the American, Mountain West, or Atlantic 10 in this category, all of which are historically multibid conferences. However, avoid thrusting in Utah state Rangers and pirates of Radford but rather focus on an Ivy Leaguers pruning Princeton, Bradley Bitterroot from Missouri Valley, McNeese from Southland and deep sleeper High Point from Big South. In any case, go past Saint Mary’s as well after three successive seeding of five and two tournament games wins.

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